Connelly: College football’s luckiest and unluckiest teams in 2020
- Bill Connelly is a staff writer for ESPN.com.
When LSU beat Florida on Dec. 12, it all but ended the Gators’ national championship hopes. They potentially could have worked their way back into the picture with an upset of Alabama, but didn’t quite pull it off.
It was even more frustrating when you looked under the hood, and saw that Florida losing to LSU was almost impossible. The Gators outgained the Tigers by 191 yards and 3.3 yards per play. They generated a success rate of 49% to LSU’s 39%. They finished nine drives inside the LSU 35-yard line, and LSU finished only five drives inside of the Florida 35.
I reference a measure called postgame win expectancy quite a bit. It takes all the key predictive stats that a given game produces (a lot of the stuff that gets fed into SP+), tosses them into the air and says, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.” For Florida, the number against LSU was 99.4%.
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