Who will replace Angela Merkel? CDU faces crushing defeat in German election – polls

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Angela Merkel has won four successive national election victories in Germany as a member of the country’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Under Ms Merkel’s leadership, the CDU and its alliance with the Christian Social Union (CSU) governs Germany in a coalition with the centre-left SPD. However, the CDU’s candidate for Chancellor, Armin Laschet, looks unlikely to take Ms Merkel’s place as head of government in September’s federal election based on current polling data and odds.

According to Smarkets Politics Prices, SPD’s Olaf Scholz is now favourite to succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor.

Mr Scholz chances have risen from three percent to a staggering 55 percent with Smarkets over the last four weeks.

While Mr Laschet has seen his chances drop from a high of 85 percent to just 39 percent over the same period.

The SPD are also the favourites by 63 percent to secure the most Bundestag seats in this election.

At the start of August, the SPD only had a one percent chance of securing the most seats.

While the CDU hope to remain in power in this election, it appears a coalition with the SPD at the forefront has become a strong possibility.

According to Smarkets, a coalition between the SPD, Greens and FDP is currently trading as 25 percent favourites.

Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, said: “Back in the Spring, the markets gave the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock a one-in-three chance of succeeding Merkel as Chancellor, but their poll ratings haven’t held up and it now looks like a two-horse race between the SPD’s Scholz and the CDU’s Laschet.

“The question of which parties will make up the next government remains wide open, with a ‘traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP now seemingly the most likely outcome.

“The chance of the current grand coalition of the SPD and CDU/CSU continuing look slim, currently rated around 14 percent likely on Smarkets.”

For the first time in more than 15 years, polling data suggests Germany will have a German Chancellor who is not a member of the CDU.

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As of August 31, Politico Poll of Polls data shows the SPD leading with 24 percent of the vote in the run-up to the election.

In comparison, the CDU/CSU alliance only tracks with 21 percent of the vote in the latest poll.

According to pollster Forsa, the latest seat projection for August 31 saw the SPD winning 197 of the Bundestag seats.

In comparison, the CDU/CSU are on course to secure 183 seats.

The AfD could win 94 seats, while the FDP could win 103 seats.

LINKE could secure 51 seats, while the Greens may win 154 seats.

The latest polling data suggests the FDP and the Greens may be instrumental in securing a coalition after this election.

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